The very big assumption Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan makes

But even that does not paint a clear picture of the global state of nuclear power.

According to the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report, which tracks every nuclear plant on Earth from development proposal through to decommissioning, the industry is stagnating, at best. Last year, five reactors were switched on, and five were decommissioned. In 2023, nuclear energy’s share of global electricity generation was 9.15 per cent – a slight decrease from the previous year, and far lower than the industry’s peak of 17.5 per cent in 1996.

One country in particular is forging ahead with nuclear – China, which has 27 reactors under construction. But even there, nuclear is being eclipsed by renewables. In 2023, China installed 1GW of nuclear and about 278GW of wind and solar.

This global surge in renewable capacity has been caused by massive cost reductions and the ease and speed of installing the technology.

Economist Nicki Hutley, a councillor with the Climate Council, says the Coalition’s plan appears to rely upon curtailing renewables deployment in Australia over coming years to make way for more nuclear in the grid.

“It has to do that because nuclear power is always on,” Hutley says. “It can’t be flicked off when there is a lot of energy coming from our rooftops.”

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Despite the potential for curtailing renewables, Dutton says the plan accords with Australia’s global climate commitments because it would still help Australia reach net zero in 2050. This is not strictly true. Even if Australia were able to build nuclear fast enough to meet that target, by keeping coal plants open until nuclear replaced them, Australia would fail to meet its interim targets.

But it is in the amount of electricity that Dutton’s plan presumes Australia will need in the future that it radically departs from the path Australia is already on.

To transition the economy fast enough to keep in line with Paris Agreement goals to stabilise the climate, the Albanese government is pursuing an energy model described by grid operator AEMO as a “step change” scenario. It means emissions fall as Australians swap internal combustion engines for EVs, electrify homes and develop new energy-intensive export industries that can be powered by electricity, such as green steel and hydrogen.

The Coalition’s costings are based on a more modest scenario, referred to as the “progressive change model”, which would simply rely on far less electricity.

This is at odds with a global movement to “electrify everything” that has become central to international discussions at global climate and energy meetings.

Dutton and his team are unrepentant about this.

“Labor believes they can force the hand of every Australian to behave the way Labor wants them to behave, to electrify exactly how Labor wants them to electrify,” said Dutton’s energy and climate spokesman, Ted O’Brien, on Friday.