Watch the exits: The ‘real issue’ missing in the migration debate
“We must interpret what is happening in terms of the numbers of arrivals and departures, not fictitious ‘net migrants’,” he said in a paper to be published at the Australian National University Migration Hub and based on a presentation he made to Department of Home Affairs officials last month.
“From this perspective, recent high levels of NOM [net overseas migration] are due substantially to the low number of departures, not the number of arrivals. Departure levels remain the same as they were when the border was closed.”
McDonald said politicians and others would call for a reduction in arrivals without having any strategy for departures, which he named as the “real issue” to be tackled.
“This is a point on which politicians of both sides must be challenged,” he said.
“There are some 80,000 to 100,000 persons presently in Australia whose last resort to stay has elapsed.
“Many are from the cohort of bogus asylum seekers who entered during the term of the previous government.”
People can apply for asylum after running out of other options to stay in Australia, with some remaining in the country after their asylum applications have been rejected. This masthead reported last month that the number of people in migration “limbo” was growing by about 1000 per month.
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Dutton said in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would cut permanent migration to 140,000, down from the budget forecast of 185,000.
Days after that speech, he told radio station 2GB that he would reduce net overseas migration to 160,000 a year – 100,000 places lower than the budget forecast.
On Sunday, he declined to commit to the net migration target when asked several times on Sky News if he stood by his earlier pledge.
Dutton emphasised his plan for permanent migration on Sky News on Monday night.
“We’ve said that we would cut by about 25 per cent the permanent intake,” he said. “That would reduce it down to 140,000 in year one, and again in year two it ramps up to 150, and then 160,000 in year four.”
The permanent migration intake covers those who are given permanent residency each year. It is separate from the net overseas migration measure of those who arrive and depart over a period of time. Permanent migration was 195,000 last year, and employers fear the Coalition target would mean turning away skilled workers.
McDonald said targeting the net migration figure without a plan for departures or the permanent intake would lead to bad policy.
“To summarise, prioritise permanent migration and its components,” he said.
“Don’t allow short-term political considerations to ruin good permanent migration policy.
“Don’t destroy valuable temporary visa programs by curtailing arrivals while not recognising that Australia has a significant problem with departures of temporary residents.”
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