While the world focused on Trump’s trade war, the Gaza ceasefire was unravelling in plain sight
But with each hostage release, the deal came a step closer to disintegrating. Hamas has no rational incentive to release all the remaining living hostages: doing so would relinquish the leverage it holds over Israel. With 33 hostages released since January, Israel believes just 24 remain alive in Gaza.
As for Netanyahu, he wanted to secure the release of as many hostages upfront as possible and delay answering any of the thorny questions left to be resolved in the final stages of the deal. Stage two was supposed to establish a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Step three would focus on the reconstruction of Gaza. Unsurprisingly, no meaningful progress has been made on these goals.
Injured Palestinians wait for treatment at the hospital following the airstrikes in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday.Credit: AP
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Netanyahu continues to insist that Hamas must be removed from power in Gaza, but has never explained how he will achieve this objective since the war began 17 months ago.
Hamas’ military capabilities are depleted and many of its top officials – like the October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar – are dead. But the group remains intact, and has reportedly built back to a fighting force of 25,000 people. During the war, Israeli troops repeatedly took control of important Gazan cities and withdrew, only to later return when Hamas regenerated and filled the power vacuum. This whack-a-mole approach was delivering increasingly limited military gains at a high cost to civilian lives.
Crucially, Netanyahu has refused to accept any governing role in Gaza for the Palestinian Authority, the more moderate faction that competes with Hamas and governs significant parts of the West Bank. This refusal makes no sense, except to advance Netanyahu’s goal of marginalising the Palestinian Authority as a negotiating partner for a two-state solution. In ruling out this option, he has made it easier for Hamas to retain control of Gaza.
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Netanyahu believes that by resuming the war, he can force Hamas to negotiate from a position of weakness and secure the release of more Israeli hostages. But the original hole in the heart of his Gaza strategy – the lack of a realistic political plan for “the day after the war” – remains as glaring as ever.
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